The Teal Group predicts that the next two years will show increasing demand for business jets and that the forecasted downturn after 2009 will not be severe. Good news for business jet makers already celebrating record growth of late.
They predict that there will be demand for an additional 12 000 business jets over the next decade worth an estimated 173.2 billion US dollars. They also suggest that more than half of these jets will be the more expensive high end models. This is a sharp increase over the 6342 jets sent to market over the last ten years.
Jet makers have cause to rejoice as the worst year forecasted is still better than any year prior to 2006.
Corporate jets sales are hitting record levels in response to good corporate profits, globalization and emerging markets.
The group suggests that Bombardier will increase sales and will equal Gulfstream, as the two largest players in the business jet industry. This assumption is based on Bombardier achieving the capital needed to finance ambitious new development plans.
The forecast predicts that Cessna will retain third place with an expected 19% share of the market. The group warns that Cessna is vulnerable to emerging competitors, but will capitalize should those emerging competitors fail.
Beechcraft will take the fifth spot, and is recovering from a period of weakness with increased profitability. The company is now under better management and the sales department has been showing better results as of late. The forecast has Hawker Beechcraft controlling 11% of the market share.
Fractional ownership demand seems to be slowing, although there is still a backlog of 500 planes on order to serve the fractional market.